A law describes a regular pattern in nature. A theory provides an explanation for why those patterns occur based on evidence. Principles are broad ideas that help make sense of a given situation.
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A guess lacks foundation, whereas a “reasoned expectation” is a prediction built upon established laws, models and evidence. Predictions are scientifically tested and when they fail, they drive deeper exploration and model improvement.
Weather systems are incredibly complex and chaotic. Forecasts rely on models with limited data. Even small initial errors can amplify over time, making exact long-term predictions difficult despite our sophisticated, modern technological capabilities.